Case Studies

Future-proofing mineral investment

Understand production and cash flow risk

 

Mosaic provided a coking coal investor, decision analysis by testing operational resilience and viability of its barge logistics plan. We stress-tested total barging day scenarios by forecasting the cumulative effects of deforestation and near-term climate change in the watershed using AI driven landcover projection and regional climate modelling. Our quantitative risk analysis used client specific criteria for likelihood and consequence to estimate the cumulative impacts on river function and operational disruption. Our analysis identified a high risk of lost barging days, reduced production capacity and cashflow hit for the 2030 operating period.

Forecasting Agri Sustainability Risk

Driving Environmental Returns with analytics

Mosiac provided a forecast of ESG performance risk to help investors strategically deliver impact and compliment smallholder engagement. Our sustainability workflow, driven by predictive algorithms rather than disclosed performance data, independently identified forest resources vulnerable to loss and conversion across the asset’s operational environment. Our approach provided an empirical basis to estimate emerging ESG risk factors, fine tune risk management planning, covenants and action plans.

Power supply diligence

Informational advantage for M&A  

Our remote diligence helped mining experts Britmindo assess a 5,000Ha, low CV coal property supplying the Sumatran power grid. Without ‘boots on the ground’, we enabled efficient and robust analysis of mine development rates, potential sterilization and restoration liabilities due to community palm crop. Our proprietary hybrid detection methods, combining radar and optical satelite data streams cut through persistent clouds, smoke and haze. Our Machine Learning procedure distinguished mining and vegetation signatures to provide reliable change detection analysis between 2015-2019.

 Optimizing Toll Road Alignment

Analytics for capital project planning 

We examined 40km toll alignment linking the Patimban deep sea port facility with a planned industrial city development. We provided the design team with asset design intelligence on surface waters and inter-annual variability of water returns between 1985-2018. Programming a classification algorithm, trained on 3 million satellite images, we mapped surface water dynamics across the proposed alignment. Blue areas in the situational analysis map illustrate proposed sections inundated regularly. Orange areas, proposed sections flooded episodically.

 Health Checking Critical Assets

Identifying ground movement for critical assets 

Mosaic provided a mega real estate and industrial development site with a rapid pre-construction health check including screening a third party toll road intersecting the development site. Partnering with Terradue’s virtual machine platform, we processed a year of satellite radar imagery to identify ground deformation patterns and potential hotspots. The situational analysis map illustrates total surface displacement – largely uplift with isolated areas of subsidence both on and off-site

 Oil Palm Supply Diligence

Rebalance supply chain sourcing

Mosaic developed a proprietory mill supply accounting method to rebalance supply chain sourcing and guide engagement expenditure across priority Agri-commodity landscapes. Using machine learning workflows, we analysed hundreds of roads and tracks making up local transport networks, calculation of travel routing times and independent estimates of smallholder potential within mill supply sheds. This information enhanced community engagement efforts to protect at-risk forest and peat resources.

 Mapping Community Risk

Fire Management Intelligence 

We provided the client with insights to inform community engagement and sharpen fire risk management plans. The assignment required a deeper understanding of community dynamics across the project landscape. We prepared spatial and temporal fire pattern and land conversion analytics, which Business Risk Indonesia used to conduct social and political linkage analysis to examine the role of key actors and ways to improve the management of at-risk forest areas